I don't think Dick's going to live to see things play out one way or another, personally.Looking at the electoral map, Obama may not get the victory he had in 2008, unless the Republicans nominate someone truly horrible which, at the moment, is most of their field.But the lay of the land, as I see it, is this:West CoastNew EnglandDFL block (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa)Rust Belt (Michigan, Illinois, Pennsylvania)Mid Atlantic (NY, NJ,MD,DE)Mountain West (NM, CO, NV)HawaiiThat's a base of 272 electoral votes on the new map. Ohio and Florida become gravy. And the Mountain West is where the Republican Party really screws the pooch in scapegoating Hispanic voters. The real consequence is, there's less play in this map than there was before reapportionment. This would have been 278 votes before the census and he could lose a state like Nevada and still be ok.But an improved economic situation, people coming around on healthcare and the "adult in the room" strategy will render this subject moot.
Just popped in to add:As optimistic as I am on Obama's chances for re-election, I'm equally pessimistic on Congress; to be frank, I think the Democrats lose the Senate, even though they narrow the gap in the House a bit. It's the consequences of both demographics and the "Adult in the Room" strategy.